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Last weekend saw Reading play Cardiff City and leave the Welsh capital with a slim 2-1 loss. Only one of the three recommended bets came in: Cardiff to win. Cardiff -1 was unfortunate with the Bluebirds taking their foot off the gas in the second half, and conceding a very sloppy consolation goal. Morrison to get the first goal didn't quite get as close, but 25/1 was value given his presence in the box at corners.
After another loss for the Royals (eight in 12), they head to East Anglia this weekend to take on a Norwich City side who themselves have been struggling to provide consistency recently. Norwich find themselves heavy favourites this weekend, best priced at 1.67, with Reading being given less than a 20% chance of success with the best priced odds being available at 5.50.
Norwich come into the game having played five teams so far in the bottom half of the table at home. Of those, they have only won one so far, beating Bolton 2-1. They do however remain undefeated against these teams, having picked up four draws. The draw is best priced at 3.8. Reading however have struggled on their travels, especially to the top half sides with five defeats in six games, with their sole points coming away to Middlesbrough back in August. They have conceded 15 goals in those matches, and scored just four times.
Currently, Norwich games are averaging 3 goals a game at home, and have had five games go over 2.5 and four under 2.5. Away from home, Reading have had six out of nine games go over 2.5 goals. If you expect the trend of over 2.5 goals to continue, this is best priced at 1.83. With the last four Norwich games all going over 2.5 goals, we should be expecting goals again this weekend I feel.
So far, Norwich have had three 1-1 draws this season, exactly half of all their draws this season. 1-1 is best priced at 8.5, and given the struggles Norwich are having beating lower teams in the table, this may be worth a small play if you feel goals may not be coming this weekend.
Fantasy Bet League:
- Wimb - 1-1 Draw - 8.5
- Westy - 2-1 Reading - 19.00
- Williams - 3-1 Norwich - 15.00
- Watts- To be added following TTEE
- Myself - 3-1 Norwich - 15.00
Using this, you'll be able to see which members of the podcast are making the most money from their predictions each week.
Recommended bets this week:
- Draw @ 3.8 - Norwich are struggling to beat teams lower in the table, especially at home. This coincides with four draws in the last six. Reading haven't drawn for eight games now. This represents better value than the very short price on Norwich, despite the defensive woes Reading are having.
- Norwich to score 3+ goals @ 3.4 - A bit of a contradiction in terms perhaps given the first bet, however Norwich can and do score goals, having got 3+ goals six times in their 18 games this season. Reading have conceded three goals in a third of their league matches this season. The 3.4 therefore represents a bet just under valued by the bookies at 29% based off the seasonal form of 33%.