Bookie Watch - Reading V Sheffield Wednesday

After an extremely frustrating midweek draw away at Millwall where the Royals couldn't find the back of the net vs a pretty toothless Millwall side, they have a quick turnaround and are at home this Saturday. Sheffield Wednesday are the visitors, with odds of 3.80 to win at the Madejski. Reading are the strong favorites, with best odds of 2.10.

Unfortunately it was another losing week for us at Bookie Watch against Millwall, with Reading -1 losing, despite the price drift out to 5.50. A goal for Reading would have opened the game out significantly and it was unfortunate that the Royals couldn't pick up their creativity in the second half against ten men.

Sheffield Wednesday are a very bipolar team, with the 3rd best record this season in the Championship away from home, many would expect to see them challenging for the promotion spots, however the home form sees them lie 23rd, and 9th overall therefore. The main issue they have got is their lack of goals, with the top scorer in the league only on 5 (Maguire and May).

The draw/Sheff Weds double may be a solid bet for the weekend, with Wednesday only having lost twice away from home this season so far, to see a double chance being offered at 1.83 for this weekend on them is quite shocking and a price much longer than expected.

They are the joint lowest goalscorers in the Championship this season with 21 goals in 27 games, and it is no surprise to see their most common scoreline is 0-0 with 25% of their games ending in this scoreline. I expect to see both teams struggle this weekend again, and a price of 11.00 for the 0-0 has to be worth a small amount given the scoring prowess of both team is somewhat lacking.

Wednesday have had 5/8 of their away games so far not reach over 1.5 goals, Reading have the same record at home. This gives a % chance of just under 40% for U1.5 goals, and so to see a price of 3.25 is very surprising for this. I like the look of this almost as much as the 0-0, which would allow for either team to grab a goal and set up shop. Neither team are likely to be able to break the other down, and one goal may be enough to win it.

The bookies appear to have taken a bit of a back seat on the Clarke era at Reading, and have pinned more credit on his two cup wins than perhaps they should. Reading are still at the wrong end of the table, with just one league win under Clarke so far in a month, and only four league wins in the last 20 games, Reading have been given too much credit going into this game and are far too heavy favourites for me to be putting money near them given the record Sheffield Weds have away from home.

Recommended Bets:

1) Sheffield Wednesday/Draw Double Chance @ 1.83 - This is a cracking price for an away side who have lost only 2 games away from home all season vs a team who aren't in great form and sit only a few places above the relegation zone. This is probably one of my favourite prices of the season thus far in Reading games.

2) Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.25 - This is a solid price considering 37.5% of all Reading home games and Sheffield Wednesday away games have been under 1.5 goals, and neither team is in great goalscoring form currently, it is tough to see where the goals in this game are coming from.

Hopefully this week is the week we get back on track here at Bookie Watch with a winning bet, and the Royals can pick up 3 points, with the fixtures occurring this weekend, it is conceivable with a loss that the Royals may be as low as 20th at the end of the weekend, and so points are vital.

Good luck to anyone having a bet this weekend, be it on the Reading game, or elsewhere, and Come on URZ! #GambleAware