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Bookie Watch - Bolton (H)

Bookie Watch is back, for another game against a side languishing in the bottom half of the table. Readingfanman takes a look at the odds available on the game.

#gAfter a turbulent week at Reading FC behind the scenes, the first team still line up this weekend to play at home against a very poor Bolton side. Bolton currently sit 23rd - having only picked up 11 points in 16 games. The main problem at Bolton is their lack of goals, having only scored 10 goals so far, with only 4 in 8 games away from the Macron Stadium. They currently are without a win in 10 matches.

Reading to win currently is at 4/6. The draw is 3/1 and Bolton to pull off a win is 11/2 best price currently. Reading odds currently imply a 66% chance of victory according to the odds. It is unlikely there is much value in taking Reading to win outright unfortunately, especially given injuries to Vydra and McCleary coming into the weekend from the international break.

Reading have also struggled with goals at home against teams who sit back against them having misfired against Leeds and MK Dons, followed by only scoring 1 against Charlton. Bolton are likely to play in a very similar manner to those teams, and a low scoring game could be expected given Bolton's lack of goalscoring threat as well. Under 2.5 at 9/10 implies a 55% chance, so far, Reading have had 75% of home games under 2.5, and Bolton have had 62.5% of away games under 2.5 goals. Corrected odds would give us odds at 68%, which would convert back to 8/17, giving us 13% edge here.

The half time market has the draw currently priced at 5/4. This implies a 44.44% implied probability. Bolton however are not a team who lies down easily during the first half of games. With 6 of their away games so far having been draws at half time, and 4 out of the 8 home games Reading have had also been draws at half time, this would lead us to have implied probability of 62.5%, or implied odds of 3/5. I feel the bookies have priced this one up a long way out, and if Bolton are prepared to sit back against Reading, a draw at half time should be closer to evens.

Despite Bolton being strong (in relative terms!) during the first half, the second half of games, Bolton are liable to concede, and have conceded 9 goals during the second half, going on to lose 2/3rds of the games they've been drawing at half time. The draw/Reading option at 37/10 offer us implied probability of 21.28%. Given the implied probability of 62.5% calculated for the draw, and Reading having won 1/4 of drawn games at half time, we're looking at 31.25% implied probability or odds of only 3.2, giving fair odds of around 3.5. Odds on offer of 4.7 give us a tasty edge to get after.

Recommended Bets:

Under 2.5 Goals 2pts @ 8/17
Half time Draw 1.5 pts @ 5/4
HT Draw FT Reading 1pt @ 37/10

#gambleaware