Another unpredictable result as the outsider wins again during a Reading match on Tuesday, with Leeds picking up 3 points at the Madejski. This weekend we travel to Derby (1.75) for an FA Cup tie this weekend in a match that will effectively end Readings' (5.50) season with a loss.
The player to be most afraid of from a Derby County standpoint is their top scorer, Chris Martin who is 4.80 to score first, these odds are quite paltry though and I recommend looking elsewhere for better value. Johnny Russell who has scored 8 goals this season so far can be found at 6.00, again however, these odds have been slashed too far to squeeze value from. The value comes from looking at Reading players to grab the first goal, Pogrebynak at 11.00 and Danny Williams (who seems to have slightly more freedom in the last few games since his return) is 36.00.
So far this season, Derby have played two times against Reading and won both without conceding a goal, 2-0 and then 3-0. Derby at 3.10 to win to nil this weekend seems like long odds given the recent record from this season, despite the obvious improvement of the Reading side. However, given the rumours of McClaren possibly set to play a weakened side, both through choice and necessity. Reading may be able to steal at least a draw from under County's nose, and a 1-1 at 7.50 may be a possibility today.
There isn't going to be any I recommend as I think the game is a tough one to judge. However, if you fall on the side of Derby winning, Derby to nil at 3.10 is your best recommended bet, and if you fall on the side of the Royals stealing something, I think the best bet available is Pogrebnyak to score first (hopefully in a rousing win for Reading) at 11.00.