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Reading travel to West London this weekend to take on a Brentford side on the newly re-laid surface at Griffin Park. The Bees currently have 4 points from their opening 3 matches and sit in 14th place in the table, 1 point and 5 places above the visitors this weekend.
Last time out (Sheff Weds away for us!), Bookie Watch was denied a big return on the Reading to win to nil bet by another last minute kick in the teeth, with Bonds' howler costing us 2.75pts here at Bookie Watch. However, the main bet of the day on the under 2.5 goals at 8/11 came in quite comfortably, and we returned 3.45pts in total from a stake of 4 pts in the game.
This weekend, Brentford will be without a key player from last season in Andre Gray, who has joined Burnley for an astonishing £9M. The expected line up I feel includes Hofman playing up front as a lone striker for Brentford, and odds of 6/1 for him to get the first goal are tempting to take. Orlando Sa who is also going to be playing upfront on his own is 15/2 to score first. However, given the lack of firepower so far, it is tempting to look elsewhere for Reading goals.
A trend I've noticed so far this season is long, deep corners with McShane attacking them, and I don't think it'll be too long until he gets on the end of one, and with odds of 20/1 for him to score anytime, this may become a much more prominent bet (as I think this tactic will yield at least 3 goals this year, making 20/1 good value).
This game last year ended 3-0 to Brentford, however, I expect Reading to have a much tougher central midfield than they did last year in this game, and Brentford to win 1-0 at 17/2 is certainly value, as is the 11/1 (amazingly long odds given the games Reading have played so far) on the 0-0.
Reading have gone behind so far this season at both Birmingham and Portsmouth, both times before half time, and have managed to score after half time, winning at Portsmouth, but losing at Birmingham. Brentford to be winning at HT, and then Reading to win the second half and claim a draw is available at 16/1. Nice value for a side which has conceded first away from home 2/3 times this season so far (discounting the 0-0 at Colchester after 90 mins).
Recommended Bets:
0-0 correct score 11/1 - 0.5pts
McShane to score anytime 20/1 - 0.25pts
Brentford HT Draw FT - 0.5pt
Bank:
Previous Bank: 90.15pts
In Play: 6.5 Pts
Returns: 3.45pts
Staked: 1.25pts
New Bank: 92.40pts