A month into the new season, and here at Bookie Watch, we wanted to give an update as to how things are going from the viewpoints of the money men, we’ll look at how the teams have started, and how the odds have changed since then. Finally, we’ll take a look to see if there is any value left in the futures markets in the Championship.
The winner market was a hotly contested one at the start of the season, with beaten finalists Boro at 6/1. They’ve since come into 10/3, this not because of their start, which has been slightly above average with eight points from a possible 15, but because their main perceived rivals have started so poorly. Derby, who were also at 6/1 have dropped back to as long as 15/1 now in the markets with their horrid start leaving them nine points behind early leaders Brighton. Brighton have managed to move into third favourites now, and sit at 9/1.
Reading started the season at 40/1, and currently you can still get 40/1, this had drifted out to 50/1 before the window closed. 40/1 on Reading to win the league sounds like long odds, however this should be shorter, with Reading having made enough signings to improve the quality of the entire squad, making Reading value for winning the league.
The relegation market has seen Rotherham go from slight favourites to outright favourites now, having only picked up one point so far, they are now at 8/11, having been 9/5 before the start of the season. Bolton have also come in massively from their original 5/1 spot, and now sit at 5/2. As stated in pre season, Blackburn are struggling so far, and their pre season odds of 7/1 for relegation are long gone, and they now sit at 7/2 having only picked up three points in their opening 5 games, only scoring three goals thus far.
Reading have drifted hugely in the relegation market, with bookmakers recognising their squad depth and have gone from 6/1 right out to 14/1. Value is probably not there however, as even at 14/1, Reading are likely to be able to easily avoid relegation.
The value I feel currently for relegation may lie in a Brentford team, who currently have only picked up one win from their first four matches, away at Bristol City. They are currently 18/1, and despite having made the Playoffs last season, there may be a small bit of value in them being relegated.
Other bets from the Championship for me would be to look at Top Goalscorer; Vydra offers no value, coming in after five games and sitting at only 33/1. Unfortunately, all value on Reading goalscorers looks to have gone currently, with Nick Blackman being the best bet, if he is to see significant game time at 100/1, however without any guarantee of minutes, it’s tough to recommend him. Orlando Sa is currently at 125/1, however I would expect his game to evolve with Vydra in the side as well, and would be surprised if he finished with more than 13 or 14 goals this season.
Reading are 12/1 for promotion (including playoffs), however they are 5/1 to finish in side the top 6. This may be a better bet now than looking at the side to get promoted at these odds. The odds on promotion have dropped from 16/1 on deadline day down to 12/1 as people keep coming in on Reading.
Of all of these bets, unfortunately there doesn't appear to be much value left in backing these bets I’ve picked out, however good luck to anyone who does fancy backing before the next game. Feel free to leave any comments on the odds we have around currently for discussion, and as always we’ll be back for the next league game at home to Ipswich.