Bookie Watch: Derby County

Tonight we host Derby County, after an impressive thumping of Ipswich Town on Friday night, 5-1. Derby have struggled so far this season to adapt under their new manager Paul Clement who has spent big money, on both wages and transfer fees this summer investing in a squad that choked last year all the way out of the playoffs on the final day at home to Reading.

Reading tonight are currently being offered at a price of 6/4, the draw being available at 5/2, with Derby being offered out generally at 2/1. The price on Reading is an intriguing one given the struggles Derby have had thus far during the season, and one that is worth a small amount potentially. Bearing this in mind, Reading at 17/4 for -1 is a big price given that their last two games, both against teams who finished above Derby last season, this has come in.

The first goalscorer market has lit up since Reading have started scoring goals this year, however most bookies tonight have both Christ Martin and Darren Bent as joint favourites at 13/2 alongside Vydra. Orlando Sa is as long as 7/1, with Blackman, who can probably be considered as the Royals 3rd striker currently, is placed 15/2 alongside Ince. I think 7/1 on Sa here is great value considering he appears to be the focal point of the attack, on viewing from Friday, with Vydra in more of a partnership role, rather than a "number one" striker role. However, this could be reversed, dependant upon who starts in the Derby defence (Alex Pearce would make for an excellent foil tonight for Vydra!).

Over 2.5 goals is a market I love the look of tonight, and the fact that it is being offered at evens, with under being offered at 4/5, is probably something that the Bookies have got completely the wrong way round in my thoughts. Derby have a very strong squad and can cause Reading problems, and Reading who have now found their feet, do look likely to continue their goalscoring form, given there is no injuries or suspensions.

The last market I would take a look at is team total goals, this is a market I got involved in personally on Friday night taking Reading to score 4+ and Reading to score 5 at very long odds. I feel that Reading actually have it in them to do what they did to Ipswich to a number of teams this season, and that 66/1 on Reading to score 5 is crazy odds considering Reading had "potential" chances a number of times on Friday. However the 18/1 to score 4+ is probably a tad more realistic!

Recommended Bets:

1) Reading to win @ 6/4 - 2.5pts Reading are starting to gain a bit of swagger now, and a bit of belief in themselves, whereas Derby have not managed to get going yet. 6/4 is a solid price for Reading to win and one worth taking.

2) Reading to score 4+ @ 18/1 - 0.33pts Reading looked like they could have created a lot more chances on Friday night, and theres nothing to suggest they won't be able to play in a very similar manner again tonight.

3) Over 2.5 Goals - 3pts One of my most confident bets so far this season is to back the overs. Reading have looked shaky in defence during games at points this season, and Derby have not been convincing themselves so far, therefore over 2.5 seems a very solid bet.

Bank:

Bank - 92.40
In Play - 6.5
Staked - 5.88

New Bank - 86.52

Please remember to gamble responsibly.