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After a successful night backing both teams not to score in the EFL cup game during midweek, we move to the first away game of the season, where for the first time, Reading are outsiders.
They travel to Molineux to play Wolves (2.30), with a share of the points being available at 3.40, and Reading to take all 3 points available at an outside price of 3.60.
Using the data from previous seasons based on these similar odds, Reading can find themselves pretty fairly priced, with the calculated odds coming out at 3.57, showing a very small edge of 0.2%. The draw gives us a slightly better edge, with calculated odds at 3.28, but available at 3.40. This edge of 1.5% is our biggest on the 1X2 market this week. Wolves currently do not offer value at 2.30, and we would need them to come up to at least 2.40 before any value was available on them.
The scoreline market has been pretty tightly wrapped up for this game, as you can see from the available odds, we are only getting value really on one scoreline, 2-2. This is available at 19.0, but only been calculated up to 16.0 This should give us a small edge of just under 1.0% against the bookies. No other scoreline is currently showing us any value, the closest being the 1-1, which is being priced at 7.1 but available at 7.0, a small swing could give value here later in the week.
Other markets giving us edge include the overs markets again, as per our game against Preston in the first game of the season - we are seeing value in backing over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 with increasing levels of value as we increase the goals tally, varying from 1.3% edge right up to a much bigger edge of 2.3% when looking at the over 3.5 goals market. I am going to therefore make Over 3.5 goals, my first recommended bet of the weekend with a great edge of 2.3% and the price giving us 4.60.
BTTS again has been a market where we have seen value in opposing the bookies for the previous game, and that again is the case here, with a slight edge of 1.6%, and a price of just over evens at 2.02, BTTS YES is my second recommended bet.
Reading V Wolves Value Summary
Draw
2-2 Scoreline
Over 3.5 Goals
BTTS YES