Coming off a last minute home win at the weekend, Reading move into another home game during mid week, as they host Birmingham City, who themselves are coming off a solid victory at the weekend away to previously unbeaten Fulham.
Reading come into this match as solid favourites with the bookies giving Reading a 47.6% chance of victory. This compares unfavorably against our calculated odds which only show a 40.3% victory chance for the Royals. The draw however has a 2.8% edge against the bookies, with a price available at 3.40. The away win is currently priced at 4.00, with calculated odds of 3.64%, giving us a 2.5% edge vs the available price.
Combining these, we come up with the draw/ Birmingham double chance at 1.67 calculated. However the bookies currently have this priced up at 1.80. This makes the double chance our first recommended bet for the Birmingham match.
Correct Scores Market
With the draw giving us good odds in the 1X2 market, we are seeing a small amount on the 2-2 draw, with bookies expecting a low scoring game. We are calculating a 6.25% chance for the 2-2 against the offered % of 5.56%. There is also a small amount of edge on the higher scoring away wins, with a 0.1% edge on 0-3 , and then a 0.3% edge also on a high scoring 1-3 loss.
The goals markets are offering are offering us a small amount of edge on higher goals markets. We are seeing a 0.9% edge on over 3.5 goals, with a 24.0% calculated chance, v a 23.1% available. We are also seeing a good edge on BTTS YES, with the odds at 2.00 for BTTS tomorrow, so far this season, Reading have hit in 4/8 games this season with Birmingham hitting in 3/7 so far this season, 2.00 gives us a very slight edge at 1.1%, and this is our second recommended bet.
As always, good luck and please gamble responsibly.
Odds correct as of 12 September.