After an exciting 4-3 win last weekend away at strugglers Charlton, Reading return to the Madejski this weekend for a home match up against Fulham. Reading go into the game as favourites and are priced up at 21/20, Fulham are priced up at 3/1 outsiders, with the draw being slightly lower at 13/5.
Reading at 21/20 are an intriguing bet this weekend, but not quite value. They have become very tough to beat recently, having only lost two games this calendar year in all competitions out of thirteen games played. Fulham on the other hand, have been extremely inconsistent, with their league record in 2016 containing 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses. Fulham have lost 7 games away from home so far this season out of their 17 played, with Reading winning 7 out of 17. This equates out at 41% combined records, with Reading being out at 21/20, a fair price on them would be at 6/4 this weekend. The draw however at 13/5 is a much better value play, with implied probability sitting at 41% also, but the odds of 13/5 suggesting a 28% chance.
Away from home, Fulham have only managed three wins so far, however, they have scored the most goals away from home in the entire league. This however is offset by their dreadful defence, which has kept just 1 clean sheet away from home. Their current GPG average is at 3.17 away from home, Reading are at 1.64 average at home, conceding just 10 and scoring 18. Reading are on a good run of form at home for clean sheets, having had 3 in their last 3 league games, however the leaky defence came back last weekend (and seems to away from home with only one clean sheet all season away to Bristol City). Therefore BTTS YES at 4/5 looks like it is worth a small play.
Yann Kermorgant got off the mark for the Royals last weekend, and with Vydra still nursing an injury, looks likely to lead the line again. Odds on him scoring first are currently 6/1. However, despite the fact they're away, Fulham players, McCormack and Dembele are both priced at 7/1. Unsurprising given the amount of goals Fulham score away from home, I would lean towards McCormack who signed a new contract with the Cottagers just last week keeping him there until 2020.
Also, as an early play, with Reading set to play in the QF next Friday night, but having to travel to Huddersfield on the Tuesday night, it may be suggested McDermott may play a weaker side on the Tuesday, this is a difficult one to predict, however, Steve Clarke played a very weakened side last year 2 days before the cup replay at Watford which was very lucrative to back against the Royals that day. If you feel McDermott may do the same thing, it is worth backing into the odds early. Odds aren't currently available, but worth looking early on Sunday.
As ever, good luck in all of your betting this weekend, and Come on URZ!
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