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Bookie Watch: Newcastle United (A, EFL Championship)

A trip to the North East, and as ever, all the bookies odds analysed for Reading and the trip to Newcastle United.

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Another missed hit on Saturday, as Wolves managed to get the two goals we were looking for, however Reading could not manage the same feat, and both of the recommended value bets came in as losers over the weekend. Wednesday sees a trip to 3/1 pre-season title favourites Newcastle United.

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Win Market

Newcastle open up in the market at 1.73 - this price is significantly pushed in - due to the amount of money being placed on Newcastle match after match - will rarely see them as value this season. The calculated odds are at 1.73. With this in mind, the draw at 3.94 is a good price, giving us a 1.7% edge over the calculated price of 3.69.  Reading come into the game being seen as the rank outsiders, and are currently available at a long price of 5.60 with a huge edge of 5.0%, having been calculated at a much lower odds of 4.38. With Newcastle having picked up zero points, the edge on this is fantastic, and I would expect to see the Reading price end up at a lower price by kick off. This makes Reading to win the first recommended bet of the match.

Correct Scores

Looking at the correct scores market, we have a small edge on on 1-1, 2-2 and 0-3. However, I feel the best value comes from the 0-2 scoreline with Reading managing to replicate the score from the Saturday match vs Wolves available at a solid price of 31.0. This gives a 0.9% edge over the bookies, where we are currently calculating the odds back out to 24.4. This is going to be a lower recommendation, due to the much longer odds, and one to follow perhaps with your heart rather than your head in this instance. However, there is value there if you are looking to take it.

Goals Markets

In the goals market, the market is very fairly priced up, with all the goals markets being pretty much spot on with the calculated odds. The only possible edge we have sits on the over 1.5 market which is at 1.40, with calculated odds at 1.38. Despite a small edge of 0.9%, this isn't worth chasing due to the shorter odds for most people, and I wouldn't recommend this for Wednesday.

BTTS has been a market which seems to have been under priced so far by the bookies during Reading matches, with three matches showing BTTS YES so far this season as value, with the only exception being the home game v Preston. So far there has been 10/24 BTTS YES in the Championship. a low % so far, and one we can expect to see drift back to the average in the Championship of 52.7%. The calculated odds are at 1.99 for the game on Wednesday with available odds at 2.05. This is going be my 2nd recommended bet of the match against the Magpies.


Newcastle United v Reading Value Summary

Reading Win

0-2 Scoreline

Over 1.5 Goals

BTTS YES

Good luck, and as ever. Please Gamble Responsibly.