After a solid outing at the weekend for Bookie Watch, winning two recommended bets out of two. We return for the second round of the EFL Cup, with a home tie against the MK Dons. We can be hopeful of another return to the third round of the League Cup, and hopefully a further push, where last year we lost at home to Premier League Everton.
Reading go into the game as undeniable favourites, and are currently priced up at 1.57, this actually gives us a solid edge on the favourites, which is rare. The bookies have us priced at 1.57, however our calculated odds are at 1.52, showing a big 1.9% edge, making Reading to win our first recommended bet of the week. The Draw is available at 4.50, just under out calculated odds at 4.50, and the away win the Dons is at 7.00, slightly under the 7.52 where we would begin to see value on the Dons.
Correct Score Market
After seeing slight value in the 1X2 on Reading, it is unsurprising that we have a small bit of value on the Royals in the correct score market as well, our edge here sits mainly on 2-0 to the home side, which is being price at 8.5, but actual odds are only 7.9 calculated, a 0.8% edge on the bookies, large for a correct score! We also have a smaller edge on 1-0 Reading which is priced at 8.1 but calculated odds sit at 7.9.
With this in mind, I have checked the Reading to win to Nil market. This is currently available at 2.88, the calculated odds are at 2.68. This gives us a huge 2.6% edge over the bookmakers, and so we are going to make this the second recommended bet of the game.
Unfortunately, the goals markets do not show us any edge in the game against the MK Dons. We cannot show any edge on the goals market, and although BTTS No is worth a small value bet, we are not going to recommend it, due to having recommended it with Reading to win to Nil already.
Reading V MK Dons Value Summary:
No Goals Bet
NB: Article written on 22nd August. Since then, the odds have shifted dramatically in favour of Reading. Reading are now best priced at 1.44, making them now not value. MK Dons have drifted to 9.3, giving us a much bigger edge than expected on the away side. Our below bets will stand as our recommended bets for today however.