For this season’s bookie watch, we are taking a slightly different look at things than last season.
All matches will now come with a new guide to the game. These are calculated using data from the last eight seasons of Championship data and will analyse what the likely scenarios will be in the match, given the respective teams odds. We are going to be looking for an edge against the bookies – and take the price where we can have a better calculated % than available %.
The first example being below shows Reading v Preston.
As we can see in the guide above, Reading is probably being over egged slightly at the bookies at a price of 2.15, and should be closer to 2.3. Preston on the other hand is being undervalued heavily, and has an edge of 3.1% with the price at 4.15. I would expect to see this decrease as we get closer to the game. The draw is also slightly under priced, but pretty close to a fair mark.
Looking at the goals table at the bottom of the guide, it shows there is an average chance of us seeing at least 1 goal on Saturday, however, the bookies see the game as low scoring, and we are seeing good value backing over 1.5 goals, and also over 3.5 goals with a big edge of 4.9% and 8.4%.
Taking a look at the score line table, the most likely score line given is a 1-1 draw, with a 13.9% chance calculated, however this doesn’t offer value with the bookies best odds giving it a 14.3% shot. We do however have a small edge on 2-0 to Reading, and also 3-1 to Reading. This ties back to our previous look at the goals market looking at the over 1.5 and over 3.5 goals market. This over 3.5 market also ties back when looking at 3-1 Preston with this holding a high 1.4% edge in the correct score market.
Looking at all of these together, our analysis shows that the over 3.5 goals market is being heavily toned down here, which in turn is showing in the 3-1 and 1-3 scorelines. Despite a 27.0% calculated probability, the available odds only show a 19% probability. With this edge, this is my main bet of the week. I would also advise small stakes on 3-1 Reading, and 3-1 Preston, with a possible smaller bet on 2-0 to Reading and the over 1.5 goals market.
Please gamble responsibly.