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With the bookies calling it almost spot on for Reading v Preston, with the highest % chance of a 1-0 home win coming in, we will hope for a more unlikely scoreline against Plymouth in the hope of taking one from them on Tuesday night.
As we can see in the guide above, the bookies have priced up the game very fairly, as you would expect, perhaps with a slight push towards the Reading price. Unfortunately the result for Plymouth has swung the odds slightly towards Reading - taking away our potential value. The fair price is a 1.75 chance, and we are being offered 1.76, so not a big edge. Plymouth are the outsiders at 5.00, but this doesn't reflect their fair price, which should be closer to 6.00. The draw has slight value at 4.00, with the calculated odds being slight below this at 3.87.
Looking at the goals table in the lower table, the bookies are expecting a higher goal scoring game than our match up vs Preston, with the over 2.5 goals being taken in from 2.50 down to 1.91 for the game on Tuesday night. This has left us with some nice value looking at the goals market for the lower scoreline markets - and the market on the BTTS (Both Teams to score (Goals Goals Goals as some of you may know it also, Goals Galore ETC)) NO has also given us a nice edge with available odds at 2.05, but calculated odds being at 1.91. BTTS NO is going to be my main recommended bet of the day with a 3.6% edge over the available odds for the bookies.
A 1-0 home victory has a nice edge with the price being available at 7.60, but the calculated at 6.3. With Reading still really to pack a punch going forward, this seems like a nice edge for us, and 1-0 Reading is going to be my main recommended scoreline bet. The other scoreline we have a small edge on is 2-0 Plymouth - this seems unlikely, hence the offered odds of 29.0, and our calculated sitting at 26.3. A small stake only on this is required if you are to follow the value.
Overall calculated odds suggest the following for Reading v Plymouth:
Reading Win
1-0 Scoreline
BTTS NO
U2.5 Goals
Let us know what you are backing for the EFL Cup game this Tuesday in the comments below, and as always, good luck!